IMO, the pricing is an extortion scam rather than a real shortage. People are falling for it because of AI hype narrative. Best to wait it out.

Not on Alibaba today. Even if they need to bin many at slower speed, it could help with memory market. Needs actual production instead of press releases.

But that is smaller than the naturals

China has made massive breakthroughs. In chips, SMIC/Huawei are advancing impressively in terms of products, but it is unclear how good yields/costs are, even if they are shipping commercial products.

Still, this PR does give hints that this is Garage hacked EUV with cannibalized parts they cannot make yet, and 4 year time scale is far out enough. There was PR of EUV breakthrough this spring too, and don’t recall if this claim is additional advancement over that.

they’ll just blow their chip fabs

The US has said they will blow them up “for them”. TSMC is supportive of US puppetted militarist fascism in Taiwan, but has backfired a bit from Trump. Tarriffs on Taiwan, and more restrictions on Chinese operations. TSMC definitely wants to avoid war even if it likes politicians that hype up weapons gifts, but also independently subsidizes it.

War is going to depend on US dictated decoupling, that black market can’t get around. The fascists will have a hard time trusting US backing for the island, as Trump has been softer on China than Taiwan so far this year.

An interesting question is which of these 2 numbers is most important. The PPP income measurements could be flawed if the poorest half of Chinese have been able to accumulate double the wealth as poorest half of Americans.

Even if “attitudes towards savings” are different/a factor, being able to survive while hoping for the upward mobility that savings/wealth provides is more likely than not, a sign that poorer half of Chinese are better off than poorer half of Americans, despite the standard measures of PPP income.

Thank you for correction and other links. China with over 4x the population, has higher PPP GDP, but I misspoke about per capita GDP.

Interesting graphs. China does have a lot of very poor provinces, even if high number out of official poverty levels. PPP income per capita is much higher in China than US and growing significantly.

whatever price problem there is with some kinds of parts, it will be the same whether they’re sold as lose parts or as part of a device.

didn’t actually read the article, but the Micron/Crucial announcement was about leaving the DIY direct market, as opposed to not keeping supply deals with OEMs. Though new contracts with them will be higher.

it becomes too big to fail because 80% of the workforce is tied up in it

In 2008, banking sector and auto industry needed bailouts for the investor/financial class. Certainly, there was no need to layoff core banking employees, if government support was the last resort to keep the doors open AND gain controlling stake over future banking profitablity in a hopefully sustainable (low risk in addition to low climate/global destruction) fashion. The auto bailout did have harsher terms than the banking bailout, and recessions definitely harm the sector, but the bailouts were definitely focused on the executives/shareholders who have access to political friendships that result in gifts instead of truly needed lifelines, or wider redistribution of benefits from sustainable business.

The point, is that workforce is a “talking point” with no actual relevance in bailouts/too big to fail. That entire stock market wealth is concentrated in the sector, and that we have to all give them the rest of our money (and militarist backed surveillance freedom) or “China will win” at the only sector we pretend to have a competitive chance in, is why our establishment needs another “too big to fail moment”. We’ve started QE ahead of the crash this time.

Work force is relatively small in AI sector. Big construction, but relatively low operations employment. It displaces other hiring too.

The question is whether government/people should get $60/barrel revenue before expenses, maybe $40/barrel after expenses, or $10/barrel but pump 5-10x as much, bribed to be loyal to US. Long term, obviously no corruption and high revenue/profit per barrel has its advantages. It’s not as though Exxon/Chevron can’t get access to Venezuela oil with fair deals, it’s that pretending corrupt puppets are the legitimate leaders provides extortion oil costs.

When you understand the hoops the US government is willing to jump through to get cheap foreign oil, you should understand that similar policies are used to deprive Americans of their fair share of resource revenue.

It’s genuinely bad, even if entire universe isn’t affected. Shows sloppiness. Headline is too kind for implying this could be “some kind of design upgrade”, instead of FUBAR.

I don’t believe this, because it is too stupid. 2026 demand forecasts for HBM I don’t believe will materialize, as customers can’t pay those crazy RAM prices either, OpenAI can’t pay for all of their promises, demand isn’t high enough for the planned data centers, and power and labour constraints.

I don’t believe it because Micron is a brand that has value premium to it. Even if they just keep charging extortionist prices while HBM demand fantasy remains propagandized, there will eventually be worthwhile consumer demand for RAM, right? Killing the division and firing everyone in it, is Micron saying “making too much money from HBM must forever put all eggs in HBM basket”

You want 2-3 phones instead of a folding phone. Light pocketable phone for actual mobile purposes. Can get a data only esim phone with voip to supplement voice/text phone, and have independent enabled data. independent charging. Backup when broken/lost phone. I suggest:

1-2 lightweight phones for mobility.
1 large possibly rugged phone for video or rugged adventures. Can be steam deck on a stand that is better setup as a dashboard. email + web tickers/discord. samsung and other phones also have a “desktop multiwindow mode”
3rd phones, can help with having 2 separate phones act as bluetooth keyboard and trackpad. Keep banking/secret stuff seperate/more secure during travel. Keep one in a locked tilt/swivel stand near bed most of the time. mod to alternate os.

2 or 3 phones is much more storage/ram and audio quality than including a tablet, with better portability options in both packing and daily use. It’s also much less $, and can leapfrog upgrades.

So concerned that we bribed foreign terrorists to blow shit up in Xinjiang, forcing China to spend on education and job programs there.

If you ever stream cable news in the background during business hours. experts will come on to tell you that if the US doesn’t bankrupt itself, then Russia or China wins. The only remaining hope for US economy seems to be to beat China at AI, because it can’t beat it at anything else. So, all the money for military, and AI to help military make Skynet, which will mostly be used to ensure establishment can control/kill Americans who don’t support Skynet for Israel supremacist rule over the US, is simply a continuation of the tautology of “all US money for militarist US establishment control over all of you”, but with more efficient AI.

But, but… surely, the most important AI application of all time, my OpenAI girlfriend, who truly loves me beyond all monetization opportunities, will never be replaced by a hotter newer model.

UBI is not going to win out over soylent green.

Establishment prefers solylent green solution to unneeded slavery for sure. UBI is an obvious winning political platform, even though it does not provide the proponents with maximum political power, the way that bandaids on oligarchist supremacism still allows for supremacism and soylent green to rise as the solution.

Simply, the answer, is to reject establishment politics, including Bernie as controlled opposition proposing nonsense that gets shot down for its stupidity, instead of UBI.

Also, an MIT study released today, said 135m US jobs could be replaced with AI agents.

The only possible customer for committed datacenter projects is the US government. the bailout is just buying all the datacenter time… because if not, China wins. Amazon, despite no congressional appropriations yet, has announced $50B datacenter to supply government customers.

It’s hard to pick not a one hit album wonder band, because bands will tend to have a lot of continuity in their sound. But dark side of the moon is both very popular and unique. Yes (Green) album was a bit of a one hit wonder.

Steely Dan and KC Roberts Live Revolution are sounds that were never copied by anyone else. NiN was very unique until copied.